Barnum effect

Introduction

'Barnum effect' is the term that refers to when information that is given, such as in a mediumistic reading, is believed or taken to be uniquely applicable to oneself, or to their associates (e.g. descriptions given of someone's deceased relatives that could also be applicable to the deceased relatives of other people), when, in actual fact, they are equally applicable to almost anyone else of the entire population. It usually works alongside cold reading and also cognitive dissonance.

In real-life

Barnum effect can be found in mediumistic, auric, psychometric, psychic and Tarot readings. Some people consult Tarot readers in the hope of gleaning some sort of insight into their own futures. The problem with this scenario, as well as countless others, is that not only is the Tarot reading predicting only one possible outcome of their client's future, but this given 'future' is equally possible for almost any other person, and is not uniquely possible for their client. However, they do not realise this, mainly because they went to the Tarot reader for an insight to their own unique future. 

   Another problem is that they draw out more meaning out of the Tarot reading than they should. The Tarot reader is merely interpreting the imagery as depicted on each card picked out from the pack. Their client, however, adds meaning to what they deem to be appropriate parts or instances of their reading, on which the reader relies on.

   In Figure 1, there is a photograph of a Tarot card - 'The Chariot' from Barbara Moore's collection with guidebook. Although Tarot interpretations do differ, as well as Tarot illustrations and interpretation techniques, the interpretation given for this card by Moore in her guidebook, 'A Guide to Mystic Faerie Tarot' is as follows: This card "...reminds you to take a step back and make note of the major issues that are causing your situation. You will probably find there are two opposing forces pulling at you. This is a case of choosing both instead of one or another. The key is finding a way to convince both forces to go forward in the same direction. It may seem impossible, but if the Chariot crosses your path,you will know it is indeed possible and certainly to your benefit."

Analysis

Apart from the fact that the reading of the card as given above does not inform us of what exactly the reading is talking about (but is assumed it is talking about two opposites in a person's life), if this description was given to someone, would it be uniquely applicable (i.e. relevant) to them, or can it also equally apply to any other person? The information given is cold reading because it is ambiguous, vague and general in meaning. Consider if it was made into a proper reading and given to a paying client. Maybe it will go something like this:

"...This card is telling me that you should take a step back and make note of the major issues that are causing your situation. These may, understandably, be your work life meddling with your family life, or financial problems, or perhaps you are being too hard on yourself and this is causing you major problems with your partner. Perhaps you are taking the brunt of it all and your partner isn't having their fair share of the work. You will probably find there are two opposing forces pulling at you. This is a case of choosing both instead of one or another. The key is finding a way to convince both forces to go forward in the same direction. Of course, you will need to slow down and give both situations equal attention. You cannot give one more than the other. It may seem impossible, but if the Chariot crosses your path,you will know it is indeed possible and certainly to your benefit." 

  The client, during this reading, is going through in their mind certain situations in their life to which this reading may relate. The Tarot reader, of course, has given a few differing suggestions to help them, and so the client can pick out the one which, in their mind, relates most to what the Tarot reader is talking about. However, again with this slightly different, but more personalised reading, the information given could equally apply to anyone, but mainly because of the more personal content that is directed towards the client, the person to whom it was given will interpret the reading as being uniquely applicable to themselves. Through selective memory and cognitive dissonance, they will  selectively remember the bits picked up by the Tarot reader that relate most to them, which confirm that the reading was tailored towards themselves and their lives. They will not notice that it was actually equally applicable to other people.

Barnum effect in mediumship

Imagine that you are sitting on a seat in a row. You are in the front row and around you are countless people seated next to you and behind you. This month's public demonstration of mediumship has been another sell-out. There are countless people seated with you, expecting their deceased relatives to come through with a message specially for them from the medium.

      The medium - a man with short, brown hair, good posture, slightly chubby perhaps, in his early 40's - is pacing up and down in front of you, along the front row of seats. "I'm getting a woman," he tells you all. The audience starts to pay him a little attention. "She has blonde hair and blue eyes," he informs you. "She is old but doesn't act her age at all!" He pauses, as if waiting. "I can see that she is wearing some leather gloves... yes, she was into gardening. I can see her garden - just look at all those flowers! Were those planted by you?" he asks the imaginary spirit lady, which, according to his gaze, is in the corner of the large room in front of you. "She's telling me, she's telling me proudly, 'Why yes! Yes, those are my flowers. I am particularly fond of petunias - could never get fed up of them being everywhere around the garden!'" the medium's impression of the spirit lady sparked off a great deal of laughter from the audience.

     "She must be my aunty Lauren - she was into her gardening!" you hear a young woman whisper to her friend a few rows behind. The medium doesn't appear to hear, however. "She had a brown tabby cat. She has a daughter who is still alive today. What's your name, sweetheart?" he asks the lady. You gasp slightly. You can't stop yourself. "Jennifer..." the medium mutters, to himself.

"That's my mother, Jessica!" you shriek, really believing the spirit lady belongs to you. The medium must have heard you, though he tries to hide that fact. "Jessica, her name is Jessica!" the medium says rather loudly. Being the typical spiritualist, you forget that you mentioned your mother's name, Jessica. Instead, you feel delighted that the medium picked up on your mum. "Did she belong to you, love? She was your mother in life, wasn't she?" the medium says to you. He heard you refer to Jessica as your mother.

Finding the Barnum Effect

In the above example of a mediumistic reading, one lady - let's call her Michelle - genuinely believed that the medium had brought through her Aunty Lauren. This was just after the medium said, "I can see that she is wearing some leather gloves... yes, she was into gardening. I can see her garden - just look at all those flowers!" Even though Michelle couldn't see the spirit that the medium was apparently seeing, she assumed that the medium had got her aunt, who had been coincidentally, "...into her gardening...". The aunt was not necessarily particularly fond of petunias, but Michelle was convinced that her Lauren was being described.

    Meanwhile, the medium's next statement, "She had a brown tabby cat. She has a daughter who is still alive today..." completely knocks you off. Your mother did have a brown tabby. She had some children, including a daughter who is still around. The medium only mentioned a daughter, but did not exclude the possibility that she might have had sons too, though he didn't hint at them. The medium came up with the name 'Jennifer'. In fact, your mother's name was Jessica (in my illustration). The medium must have heard you shriek it out, because immediately afterwards, he changes the spirit's name to 'Jessica'.

    What happened, do you think, when the lady thought that the medium had picked up on her Aunty Lauren and then you thought the medium had picked up on your mother, Jessica? Well, you both thought that the medium's statement or statements uniquely applied to your own deceased relatives. The medium could have been referring to Jonathan Stevens's (another person from the audience) sister, but because you thought that the spirit was your mum, you didn't really give him a chance to say that the medium was channelling his deceased sister! What caused you both to believe the medium's statements were uniquely attributable to your deceased family members? The 'Barnum Effect', of course.

    It makes you wonder. So if you had assumed that your mum had come through, the first lady has to bear the disappointment that her Aunty Lauren hadn't come through. The spirit lady might have been Jonathan's sister, but he didn't know. He was being more cautious, because he wanted to be absolutely certain it was his sister and was merely waiting to see whether the medium came through with more information about the spirit lady. So now he has to bear the disappointment that his deceased sister apparently didn't come through.

 
Conclusion

Whether the Tarot reader makes her readings based on a consultation of her guidebook for the meaning of each Tarot card in a given spread for her clients (or bases the interpretation on those given in the guidebook) or they give readings based on their personal interpretation of the symbolism featured on each card in the card spread, or they give deliberate cold readings for each card for their paying clients - because they know that the client will believe that the information given for them is uniquely attributable to themselves though the Barnum effect - remains to be seen. Regardless of how the reading was construed in the first place, Barnum effect is, and always will be, found in Tarot readings, amongst other readings claimed to have been done through 'psychic means'. It takes the apparent magic out of the notion or belief of spiritualists that Tarot readers, mediums, psychics, etc. can pick up on and give information that can always be of relevance to their clients. Truth is that one of the ways these practices work, is through the Barnum effect. Coupled with cold reading, the Barnum effect makes these things more impressive than they actually are. It must be remembered that a Tarot reader cannot actually know anything about their client - never mind their future - from doing them a Tarot reading. However, it may seem possible to the client if they are unaware of how the whole thing works in the first place - through cold reading and the Barnum effect. This is true for other instances in which it can be found - 'personalised readings' of people's auras by psychic who claim to be able to tell their clients about themselves and their personality through interpretation of the colours of their aura! Or readings about people and their deceased through psychometry, mediumistic or psychic abilities. Again, these are not personalised at all; the information is wrongly perceived to be only relevant to oneself (through the Barnum effect, of course) when it could apply to almost anyone else.